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January 21, 2007 |
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Jeb's next move: Once again, a Republican governor upsets the plan for the smarter Bush |
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(Originally published in The Palm Beach Post) |
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Poor Jeb Bush -- love him or hate him, you have to feel sorry for his timing. No matter how hard he works, Republicans beyond his control seemingly conspire to keep his decades-old Oval Office dream just beyond his grasp. In 1994, the Republican was his older brother. A year earlier, Jeb had been openly annoyed that George W. even had entered the Texas governor's race, turning Jeb's own bid to unseat Democrat Lawton Chiles into one half of a cutesy People magazine feature. The fact that George W. somehow won, while Jeb lost, added injury to insult. The ne'er-do-well who had failed to take his own life seriously until age 40 was now on the road to follow in the footsteps of their father, the former president, while hard-working, always-serious Jeb was relegated to starting a minor-league think tank. No matter. Jeb was still young, and could wait. Yet 13 years later, it's another Republican governor once again squeezing Jeb's presidential ambitions, this time from the other direction and possibly shortening Jeb's window of opportunity to this coming election cycle. This time, the other governor is the man who succeeded him, and whose stunning fund-raising ability and equally remarkable populist style threaten to take the state Republican Party in a direction that leaves Jeb behind. What if, by the 2012 election, it is not Jeb Bush who is the obvious Florida choice for the national Republican ticket, but Charlie Crist? It is far too early to say how Gov. Crist will perform in his first term, let alone whether he will win a second. But the mere possibility that Gov. Crist could in five years serve as an equally attractive alternative when it comes to organizing the state or joining the ticket as a running mate changes the dynamic for Jeb. Charlie Crist's ability to raise some $50 million for his election without relying on Jeb Bush's machine, his ability to talk and act like a different kind of Republican, and his phenomenal poll numbers together may force Jeb to press for a vice-presidential slot in 2008 or risk losing his current status of GOP boss for the state's 27 crucial electoral votes. He has intelligence and the will In the best of all of Jeb Bush's worlds, he would not have to serve as vice-anything. He is a smart man who studies details, works hard and, once he has come to an opinion, rarely can be moved from it. He has the ego and temperament of a ruler, not a team player. But this is not a perfect world, as Jeb has learned again and again. Not only did his brother win in 1994 and then win reelection to set himself up for the 2000 presidential nomination, the election follies that year cast Jeb as an accomplice in the heavy-handed power play that wound up with a 5-4 split decision in the Supreme Court. Even after Osama bin Laden's attacks wound up giving George W. the legitimacy and heft that the 2000 election had failed to provide, Jeb only could watch as his older brother frittered that away, too, with a war against Iraq that even many Republicans have come to oppose. Imagine how useful his last name might have been for Jeb had George W. spent the energy he has squandered on Saddam Hussein capturing bin Laden and stabilizing Afghanistan. But no matter, where there is a will, there is a way -- and Jeb without question has the will. As far back as a year ago, the plan for the post-governor years was moving apace. Mr. Bush engineered it so that his successor, whoever it was, could not control the Board of Education until his second term. Jeb and his people assembled a legislative "farm team" to continue his legacy after he was gone. These and other related schemes, of course, would not really let him continue as a shadow governor. But they would offer a measure of control over state policy and politics. Played correctly, they would allow Jeb Bush to remain the most important Republican in Florida, just as he had been after his 1994 election loss and before his 1998 win. And then, along came Charlie Crist. Charlie Crist, who developed his own fund-raising machine and then went on to demolish Jeb's 2002 mark by about $15 million. Charlie Crist, who called himself a Ronald Reagan conservative and praised Jeb Bush's legacy, but then ran a campaign during which he often sounded like a liberal Democrat. Charlie Crist, who snubbed Jeb's brother by skipping a Pensacola rally the president attended, yet won a healthy victory anyway in a year Republicans nationally were getting trounced. Jeb and his people never respected Gov. Crist, whom they considered a lightweight and an opportunist. But they still must be shocked at how quickly the new governor has begun dismantling his predecessor's apparatus. Gov. Crist made open government the aim of his first executive order, after Jeb Bush spent eight years building barriers to keep out the press and public. Gov. Crist yanked 283 Bush nominations, including both political supporters Jeb had been counting on to keep the Board of Education loyal to him. Jeb's education commissioner announced his retirement within days. And, most significant, Gov. Crist last week presided over a special session where bashing the insurance industry for "profiteering" was the order of the day -- a stunning reversal of Jeb Bush's "what's-good-for-business-is-good-for-Fl orida" model. Could he handle being No. 2? The big danger for Jeb is this: What if Floridians actually prefer Gov. Crist's brand of Republicanism? What if, as the years pass, Crist loyalists in the state party outnumber and outrank Bush loyalists? What if, by a Crist second term, many Florida Republicans start saying what some newly invigorated Republicans in Tallahassee already are saying: Jeb who? Many of Jeb Bush's closest aides have signed on for the presidential campaign of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. This made sense under the pre-Crist Republican paradigm. Mr. Romney is catering to the Christian conservative wing of the party that both Bush brothers have made their base. But what if, by 2012, this group no longer dominates GOP primaries in Florida and other states? Where does that leave Jeb Bush, who by then will have been out of office six years? Jeb, who may have thought he had the option of sitting out 2008 yet still remaining a contender for 2012 and 2016, probably is having to reassess. Despite his protestations to the contrary, Jeb Bush is making the moves of a potential national player. He will appear next weekend at a Washington forum with Mr. Romney and Newt Gingrich. His Foundation for Florida's Future is sitting on $1.5 million in cash, money Jeb could use to talk up education reform in Iowa or New Hampshire. He met with Simon & Schuster about writing a book. His people are pushing hard to advance Florida's primary election date, which would enhance his status as a kingmaker. If any Republican can make a late entry into the presidential race and still have a good chance at winning the nomination, that would be Jeb Bush. More likely, though, his brother's increasingly despised adventure in Iraq will rule out 2008. And with Gov. Crist's rise in Florida potentially endangering Gov. Bush's status in 2012, Jeb is left with just one safe option that guarantees a clean shot at running for president: agreeing to be vice president first. Once he gets over his distaste, having to subordinate his own will and ego to somebody else, the job would be a smart fit for Jeb, in terms of overcoming the distaste that seven in 10 Americans currently have for the Bush name. The laid-back atmosphere of a vice-presidential candidate's campaign plane would be the ideal venue to win over Republican grass-roots activists as well as the national media, who then would dutifully report, when the time came: "The guy is nothing at all like his brother. He's got an attention span. He knows stuff." True, that time could be as late as 2016, if whoever wins the 2008 Republican nomination goes on to win the presidency and then runs for reelection. Jeb turns 54 next month, so he would be 63 in early 2016. That's an awful lot of overseas funerals and regulatory task force meetings. Could Jeb handle it? Being someone else's right-hand man for that long when he lasted all of 18 months as former Gov. Bob Martinez's secretary of commerce? Given the Crist factor, he may have to. |
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